Global liquidity expected to continue amid ECB stimulus
If Modi wants to be a man of history, he must make hard choices that will pay off down the road, says T N Ninan.
In her keynote address at the 8th annual Global Entrepreneurship Summit, she said that despite the soaring rate of female entrepreneurs, women still face steep obstacles to starting, owning, and growing their businesses.
The UN Trade and Development Report 2010, released this week, has said the fundamental causes of the economic crisis have not been addressed and 'remain a toxic threat to stable and inclusive growth and the sustainability of the recovery'.
As the central bank continues to increase forex reserves by running down the forward book which totalled $42 billion as of end-July, signalling its strong resolve to build a bigger reserve cushion to aid its expansionary, unorthodox monetary policy, the reserves are set to top the $655-billion-mark by March, according to a report. The forex kitty declined by $2.10 billion to $619.36 billion for the week to August 13 due to a fall in the core currency assets and gold, showed the latest RBI data. The reserves had risen to a lifetime high of $621.46 billion in the previous reporting week ending August 6.
'Anyone can string together a few alliterative words, but are they a substitute for serious thought?' 'And do they make for a strategy or plan for coherent action?' asks T N Ninan.
Ahead of India's annual budget presentation next week, IMF's chief economist Gita Gopinath has favoured the extension of the pandemic support measures, thrust on investment in infrastructure and expanding health sectors programmes like Ayushman Bharat, and a very credible divestment path for commercially viable companies. The Indian government has provided a lot of schemes for small and medium enterprises, most of which is in the form of liquidity support, Gopinath told PTI on Tuesday. "And you want to revisit it and see how effectively that is working and see whether additional support may need to be provided," she said while responding to a question on her recommendations to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, ahead of her presentation of the annual Union Budget on February 1. It would be a good time for banks and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) to raise capital given the attractiveness of financing conditions at this point, she said.
Bangladesh might overtake India this year by per capita income in nominal dollars, but it is not yet close to becoming South Asia's economic powerhouse anytime soon, T N Ninan points out.
The government clarified that the majority of industrial establishments had reported nil production, and cautioned that the numbers should not be compared with those of previous months. "It is not appropriate to compare the IIP of April 2020 with that of earlier months, and users may like to observe the changes in the IIP in the following months," said the ministry of statistics & programme implementation.
'Perhaps GST was too complex a system for the Indian economy at its present stage of development,' argues T N Ninan.
World Bank says India has bright prospects.
The PM said Japan and the Indian diaspora has a big role to play in India's growth story.
The internals of the food inflation are worrying, given a broad-based uptick across categories that tend to be sticky, such as proteins, and a narrower-than-expected reduction in inflation for vegetables.
Economist Abheek Barua's insight into the global and domestic economy at the turn of the financial year.
Data on the new series given by a panel on real sector statistics shows that GDP grew by 10.23 per cent in 2007-08 and 10.78 per cent in 2010-11. There are some years for which the new figures show a deceleration in growth as well. The new series has 2011-12 as the base year while the earlier series had 2004-05 and 1993-94.
Sitharaman said that developed countries were blaming India for the impasse at the WTO, but India convinced them about its legitimate demand.
The Three-Pointed Star also unveiled its 2021 motto coined as 'Reimagining Excellence', which aims at making the brand more desirable and drawing customers closer.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
He said the country has witnessed a journey from indecisiveness to clarity and decisiveness.
In her opening remarks, while chairing the meeting of the Congress Working Committee, Gandhi also accused the Centre of giving preferential treatment to some states while maintaining "thundering silence" on requests of states ruled by the Congress and opposition parties.
Apart from the Google team led by AI scientist Manish Gupta, the company will also partner with the research community across the country to focus on tackling challenges in fields like healthcare, agriculture, and education.
'The government has said it has kept its powder dry to fight the true battle against the debilitating influence of the pandemic.' 'The release of the shocking economic data this week should act as the fuse for using that powder now.' 'Further delays will make the battle that much harder,' notes Shreekant Sambrani.
The upcoming general elections will be the focus and the economy and market performance will pivot around that event. The general consensus is that the India stock market should be up around 10 per cent by the end of the year.
Describing it as 'a very powerful order' Trump told reporters during his daily news briefing at the White House on Wednesday that he signed the order to protect American workers' jobs in an economy pummelled by the COVID-19 pandemic.
P Chidambaram says all options are on the table.
The government is scrambling to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.1 per cent of GDP in the fiscal year ending March
'I'll give it to the vaccine manufacturers without guarantees, take the payment in advance and give me the supplies.' 'The moment you give me one lot of supply, I'll give you more.'
Overall, the Survey warned that unless shifts in the vision of development were articulated and embraced, the Indian economy would lose the chance to move to a high-growth trajectory.
Gen Rawat said the world looks at India as a country that can balance the rise of China in the region as it was showing its 'assertiveness'.
Subramanian's paper comes at a time when concerns have been raised in various quarters about the official economic growth numbers. The Economic Advisory Council-PM said the Base Year of India's income calculations were shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in national income accounting.
Jaitley's Budget has the potential to change the face of Modi's Bharat
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
If Mr Modi and his team expect to win the 2019 elections, groundwork for improved performance in their second term should be done now.
The Union Budget for 2009-10 will reflect UPA government's ambitious agenda like Rs 3 kg rice or wheat for BPL families, enlarging NREGA coverage and more focus on infrastructure to bring the economy on high growth.
Sustaining anything in the region of 7% growth should be good enough in a troubled and risk-laden world, says T N Ninan.
Responding to questions, the World Bank president insisted that this slowdown is temporary.
'Our first great challenge is to create 12 million new jobs each year, to make the demographic dividend an economic dividend.' 'We are nowhere near that,' points out Mohan Guruswamy.
The government has only taken a pause and more measures will be announced in the days to come to help sectors hit by the coronavirus outbreak and also to make India 'Atmanirbhar Bharat', Minister of State for Finance Anurag Thakur said. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the government has taken several steps to mitigate the hardships of the people due to lockdown and support growth, Thakur told PTI in an interview.
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In India, the need to find a solution for the jobs problem is perhaps even more urgent considering the oft-quoted number of a million young people arriving every month looking for jobs.
